I had an unusually clear and lengthy dream the other night in which Gov. Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico;
video resume online) sought out my advice on his presidential campaign.
Actually, I had a dream about how Bill Richardson asked me for his two minutes of his time, but 30 seconds into our conversation, Hillary Clinton came over to us and asked for two minutes of my time, and I told Bill that the fact that I was going to get up and leave our conversation to talk to Hillary was probably a bad sign for him.But this is about the 30-second conversation I had with Bill Richardson.
He said, "What can I do to catch up?" And the dream must have come the day after the word broke about the memo written by Clinton campaign aide Mike Henry suggesting that she
skip Iowa. I said to Bill -- because, again, a presidential candidate was asking me for advice, and who am I to turn him down -- "You'll have to finish second in Iowa."
He's into double-digits there now, per
Zogby (April 3, 29-23-23-2; May 17, 28-26-15-
10), and obviously, John Edwards remains well positioned himself.
It seems to me that as long as Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's names are first and second or second and first in every horse race conversation, it might as well be a two-horse race. But the idea that one of the frontrunners might skip a newsmaking early caucus might be the opportunity that the rest of the field hoped for.
What I'm really doing is looking ahead to a hypothetical January 23, 2008. Status quo, there's no sign that these two states won't break either Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton. If Clinton yields in Iowa, the storyline going into the virtually national primary in early February has room for a third name.
The Clinton campaign dismissed the thrust of the memo, of course, and while there are some reasons skipping Iowa might a good idea for her, there are lots of reasons why it would be a bad idea. So this is hypothetical: Who among the second-tier candidates is in the best position at the moment, on the ground in Iowa, to finish second if Hillary withdraws (or first, if Obama followed her out of Keokuk)? And have any of them stepped up or scaled down efforts in Iowa lately? Alphabetically, then:
Joe Biden. Well, he's launched an
Iowa-specific website... wait, he launched this
just yesterday? That's weird. Is on a six-day Iowa swing presently and has been in Iowa three times in May.
Assorted endorsements. Announced Iowa organization March 29, headed by Bill Romjue, who last managed Dina Titus' just-short campaign for Nevada governor.
Chris Dodd. Something called "D-SPAN" is said to be coming to this website soon, but I can tell you now that the website is probably not excited about it and may pretend to be out for the night when D-SPAN tries to get buzzed in. Anyway -- was in Iowa in mid-May. Opened his Iowa headquarters March 20 with a one-year lease -- suggesting to
AP that Dodd intended "to mount a credible Iowa caucus campaign" against the better-known candidates. State director is Marc Beltrame, a young lawyer and former senior aide to an Iowa congressman.
John Edwards. Biden's Iowa website address has me typing slash iowa at the end of every candidate's home address just to see if there's anything there. Sure enough, there's a
slash iowa on the Edwards website (launched May 10, I guess). Based on the illustration, the northern half of Iowa is sky and the southern half crops. Lists eight (eight!) Iowa offices and notes plans to open more soon. Was in Iowa for three days during the first half of this weekend and had visited Iowa nearly two dozen times between 2004 and mid-May, when 1500 Iowa women "representing all 99 counties and more than 800 precincts"
launched "Women for Edwards." Assorted
endorsements and "
rural county chairs" in every county. State director Jennifer O'Malley was his Iowa field director in 2004.
Richardson. No slash iowa, but -- aha -- it's
iowa.richardsonforpresident.com (launched May 23). The webstaff there should add a redundant link. Was first on the air in Iowa (April 20). Was last in Iowa himself last weekend, looks like. Des Moines HQ. Did not name an Iowa state director until May 20; he is Robert Becker, who was in Iowa in 2000 for Bill Bradley. The Iowa page does a good job of making the case for Richardson as the most Iowa-y of the candidates, listing accounts of his ease and comfort among rural voters.
(As yet unknown is which candidate has the support of Ohio-based rock band
Big in Iowa. I expect this to be determinant.)
So it looks like Edwards is very there; Richardson is getting there (he's not visiting often, so his team must be doing well for him, or his visits are having more of an impact); Biden has an interest in being there, but trails; and Dodd is nowhere.
Exceptionally useful would be the
iowapolitics.com page on the 2008 presidential race, which includes Iowa visit counters for both the Dems and the Republicans. I didn't use this page as a leap-off in my own research for this entry, though, because I didn't want my searches funnelled through just one page.
The Cavs knotted the Eastern Conference finals, 2-2, with a 91-87 win over the Pistons tonight.
